Election Predictions

On the eve of the Democratic primaries in Indiana and North Carolina, I still see a tight race between Scola and Ravasi.

In spite of reports in the French media that Pope Benedict XVI is ill, my guess is that His Holiness might have a few years left. He certainly seemed pretty physically and mentally spry during his recent visit to the U.S.

However, it is always good to look ahead and be prepared for life after Benedict XVI. Two names that keep coming up as possible successors to St. Peter are Cardinal Angelo Schola, the Patriarch of Venice (the post held by Cardinal Albino Luciani when he was elected Pope and took the name John Paul), and Archbishop Gianfranco Ravasi, the current President of the Pontifical Council on Culture.

Cardinal Schola was on the list of papabile during the last conclave. At that time, he was just 62 years old and perhaps perceived as too young. However, he is now 65. He speaks many languages and gives presentations all over the world. For more information on Cardinal Scola, go to: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angelo_Scola

Archbishop Gianfranco is the current "up-and comer". He is a front-runner to succeed Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi as Archbishop of Milan next year (when Tettamanzi must sibmit his resignation on his 75th birthday). Cardinal Giovanni Montini was Archbishop of Milan when he was elected Pope and took the name Paul VI. Gianfranco is still pretty young at 62. However, if Pope Benedict's tenure is relatively brief, the College of Cardinals might be looking for a younger person to lead the Church. For more information on Archbishop Ravasi, go to: http://ncrcafe.org/node/1781

Some may question the appropriateness of speculating on successors to St. Peter. Yes, Pope Benedict isn't dead, yet. However, it is important to think about the direction the Church should go in the next few years knowing that entities as large as the Church do not change directions - they drift towards directions. Schola and Gianfranco are both seen as fairly moderate. There are other candidates in the mix - Cardinal Maradiaga of Honduras, Cardinal Bergoglio of Argentina and Cardinal Bertone, the current Vatican Secretary of State (he won't get much consideration since he doesn't speak English very well). I don't think one should rule out the possibility of a Pope from Latin America.