Who will it be? Hilary? Rudy? Barack? Fred?
Who cares about THAT election! Last month, several Cardinals that have been on the various lists of papabile made lengthy trips to the United States. Secretary of State Tarcisio Cardinal Bertone spoke to the Knights of Columbus. Franc Cardinal Rode of Slovenia made several stops in the good ol' USA, as did Oscar Cardinal Rodriguez Maradiaga of Honduras. While these leaders may not be "campaigning" to be the next Pope, it is helpful to have your name be familiar to the English language media. Karol Cardinal Wojtila made trips to the USA in the mid 70s.
With that background, here is my short list, in no particular order, of papabile Cardinals:
Secretary of State Tarcisio Cardianl Bertone - he is the #2 man at the Vatican. He is about the right age, 72, if a conclave is held in the next few years. The fact that he does not speak English could work against him.
Christoph Cardinal Schonborn - he is the Cardinal Archbishop of Vienna. He comes from an aristocratic family. At 62, he may be a bit young right now. However, if the next conclave is a few years away, he should be a strong contender. He has made headlines with his comments on intelligent design. The fact that he is from old Europe could work against him given that the current Pope is German.
Oscar Cardinal Rodriguez Maradiaga - he is from Honduras. He speaks several languages, is very dynamic and is a pilot. For those that think it is time for a Pope from Latin America, he could be the prime candidate. At 64, he is close to the right age. He has been in the headlines recently for being the object of some of Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez's scorn.
Angelo Cardinal Scola - is the Patriarch of Venice. Two recent Popes, John XXIII and John Paul I serve in Venice. He gets a significant amount of press coverage in the European media. He travels extensively in Europe and gives many interviews. He is 65.
Daria Cardinal Castrillon Hoyos - is from Columbia. He has served in several curial positions, including the Congregation for the Clergy. He is well-known and resepected by the clergy world-wide. While a curial insider, he has maintained stong ties with South America. He is 78 years old. He may not be a strong candidate for much longer.
Jorge Cardinal Bergoglio - is the Archbishop of Buenos Aires. He can serve as the standard bearer of those that want an Italian Pope and those that want a South American Pope. He was given consideration at the last conclave. He could be a compromise candidate as he is neither a conservative nor a progressive. He is a 70-year old Jesuit.
Although he will not receive any, Audrys Cardinal Backis (pronounced botch-kiss) of Vilnius should be given serious consideration. He has extensive experience in the Vatican diplomatic corps and know the world wide Church very well. In his role as a pastor, including as a bishop and archbishop, he has worked diligently to build hospitals, schools, soup kitchens, seminaries and convents. He works well with the media and speaks several languages. He seems to have the perfect blend of adminsitrative and pastoral skills and experience. He is 70 years old.
There you have it - my early effort to handicap the next conclave. The biggest factor may be age. There will likely be some Cardinals that still believe that the best age of a newly-elected pope is around 67-73. A Pope in that age range would likely be around for a few years, but not too many.
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